von Zeit.los Magazin
20 November 2023
Tyrol's winter extremes
The heavy snow
Sometimes Mother Holle shakes her pillows particularly vigorously over the land. Extreme precipitation events that bring heavy snow in winter have regionally different causes in Tyrol.
It is now exceedingly rare for a season to be colder than average.
Manfred Bauer
Weather Forecasts: From Farmers' Rules to Modern Meteorology
If the farmer dies in October, he doesn’t need a sweater in winter. This satirical variant of a farmer’s saying hits the mark reliably as the only one. Otherwise, the establishment of such rules for the weather is quite difficult, particularly regarding medium- and long-term forecasts. Meteorologist Dr. Manfred Bauer, who heads the customer service center of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics – referred to as ZAMG – in Innsbruck, does not work with farmer’s sayings, but rather with increasing computing power and more extensive data to gain an increasingly precise overview of the weather developments.
Now, forecasting the weather is already tricky, but forecasting climate development is even more complex. On the one hand, due to an enormous number of mutually influencing variables, and on the other hand, it also depends on our behavior and the measures we implement. "Climate change has become increasingly apparent in recent years," says Bauer. This is reflected in extraordinary temperatures on one hand and record precipitation on the other.
Winter Weather in Tyrol: Challenges and Record Events
"In summer and winter, one deals with fundamentally different phenomena," says the expert, who generally considers winter events to be largely predictable. Regarding Tyrol, it is important to distinguish whether something is brewing on the northern or southern side of the Alps. Bauer gives an example: "In 2019, there was a flow from the north to northwest for about ten to fifteen days, during which cold fronts were repeatedly embedded. When such a cold front encounters an obstacle, specifically a mountain range, it usually brings substantial amounts of precipitation there," explains the meteorologist. This weather situation led to snow records along the northern edge of the Alps at some measuring stations, for example in Seefeld. "In Seefeld, there were seven meters of new snow in seven days at that time," the meteorologist recalls. Not much happened; the white splendor remained peacefully in place.
The Future of Meteorology: Limits and Opportunities of Weather Forecasts
Meteorology has improved significantly due to weather satellites and more powerful computers. "When I started my career in the 1990s, we could reliably forecast the weather for today, tomorrow, and at best for the day after tomorrow. Today, accurate predictions are often possible for a week and sometimes even longer," says Bauer. However, it seems that a ceiling has been reached. Therefore, patience will still be required for a few more decades to learn how the winter will be and whether, where, and how much snow there will be. The probability that winters will be above average warm, just like summers, is now at 80 percent due to climate change. "If you ask me, I always say that summer or winter will be too warm. It has become exceedingly rare for a season to be colder than average," Bauer notes, backing it up with statistics. Even though harsh winters in lower elevations are likely to increase, there is still good reason to believe that future generations will experience significant snow firsthand, with all its characteristics. As quiet white splendor, as well as in the form of an avalanche, a destructive primal force that crushes everything in its path.
Living with the White Danger
No matter how beautiful the snow may be, it can also become quite threatening. In the Alpine region, no natural hazard is as present in winter as an avalanche.
It will never be possible to completely prevent avalanches, but there are some approaches to better understand them and mitigate the risks. The Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol plays a significant role in this. Rudi Mair is the face that is publicly associated with the topic of avalanches. For more than 30 years, the trained meteorologist and glaciologist has been serving at the Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol, and for almost 20 years, he has been leading the institution.
We have more and more computing power available today for simulation purposes. Has this affected avalanche forecasting?
Rudi Mair: At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, hundreds of mathematicians, physicists, and meteorologists are working to improve weather predictions. Many of the progress achieved is indeed related to the fact that computers are becoming better and faster. In the same breath, we should mention the progress in IT. It is of no use if weather and avalanche situations can be predicted better and more accurately, but the information is not delivered to the end user. The safety has increased tremendously, especially due to smartphones: through better forecasts and subsequently better communication.
Most people know that snow is white and cold, and that you can ski on it. However, snow is a living matter.
Rudi Mair
How has your work changed due to the availability of significantly larger amounts of data?
When I started at the avalanche warning service in 1990, there was not a single automatic weather station in Tyrol. Now there are over 200 of them, each measuring 15 parameters. This alone results in over 3,000 values every ten minutes! In the past, we had too little data; today we actually have almost too much. The
art lies in selecting the relevant information from this abundance of data. However, I still need a human forecaster for this; the computer cannot do it yet.
Are avalanche warning levels often misinterpreted by laypeople, for example, is level 2 (moderate) still seen as a free pass?
This is definitely misinterpreted. Levels 1 or 2 are both danger levels and indicate avalanche danger. Only level 0 would mean that there is no avalanche danger at all. Accidents often happen at level 2 because people misjudge the situation – for instance, skiing simultaneously in very steep 40-degree slopes – and trigger an avalanche. However, the most critical level for us is the third. Anyone moving in alpine terrain at level 3 definitely needs avalanche knowledge.
Are there exposures that are statistically more dangerous than others?
This can only be said very roughly. In mid-winter, it is more the north-facing slopes that tend to be more dangerous, while in spring, it is more the south-facing slopes. However, this cannot be said in general terms. I always recommend checking the avalanche report.
Winter on the High Plateau
Even though there is often a lot of snow in the entire Seefeld region and especially in Leutasch in winter, avalanche knowledge is naturally not needed everywhere.
On the contrary. While cross-country skiing, winter hiking or snowshoe hiking along the designated paths, the beauty of the high plateau can be experienced completely safely.
Winter Report
The zeit.los magazine writes the most beautiful stories of Tyrol's high plateau: about its people, unique places and all the adventures you can experience at 1,200 meters. The magazine is published 2x a year - in summer and winter - and is available for you to pick up.
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